(The text below references slides presented in the video. Watch the video.)
Recently, I went to Canberra to attend Australian Local Government Assembly.
It was a great opportunity to meet with a range of agencies and organisations to learn how to serve the community better.
We were briefed about the COVID global pandemic. Some of the statistics presented were new to me and really surprised me, and I wanted to share them with you.
One briefing was from Professor Mary Louise McLaws, an epidemiologist from the University of NSW. The professor had some chilling statistics about COVID and vaccine effectiveness.
Another was from Danielle Wood, the CEO of the Grattan Institute – a heavyweight and independent economic think tank. Danielle spoke about the economic impacts of the pandemic.
I’m relying on the notes and pictures I took of the presentation slides, and offer attribution and thanks to the respective authors.
The first insight relates to just how different the Delta strain of the COVID virus is compared to what we’re used to
There are three attributes of concern in a virus:
How catchy it is, how long you can have it without manifesting symptoms, allowing people to become unwitting super-spreaders, and how deadly it is once you have it.
Delta is worse in two out of those three.
This new strain, which originated in Maharashtra State in India is between 70% and 90% more virulent than the strain we were dealing with for most of last year.
People can carry Delta for longer without realising it.
So, containment strategies are even more important – face masks, stay at home orders and lockdowns.
On the other side, there’s evidence that Delta may be slightly less lethal, possibly because it seems to hit younger people, who are better able to fight it off. That makes this week’s announcement that people under 40 can get vaccinated is a game-changer.
Concerning vaccines: Both the Astra Zeneca and Pfizer vaccines are overwhelmingly safe.
If there’s one message above all others, it’s this: please get vaccinated, as soon as you can. Book it with your GP, hop on to the Service NSW app.
According to John Dwyer, Immunologist and Emeritus Professor of Medicine at UNSW, only one person per million is likely to die of the complications of thrombosis associated with vaccination. You’re far more likely to die of COVID if you’re not vaccinated.
There was something on the news last night that really drove home that point:
However, there is something worth knowing about the relative effectiveness of the two vaccines, made by Astra Zeneca and Pfizer.
Both vaccines are less effective against the Delta strain than the old strain.
The data clearly shows it’s critically important that you get both doses, and that your immunity can more than double after the second dose.
Also, the Pfizer vaccine is somewhat more effective overall.
But that shouldn’t make you an Astra-Zeneca holdout. The best vaccine, bar none, is the one that’s available, and soon. Don’t wait, if there’s no medical reason not to.
Next, here’s what you need to know about the profile of outbreaks.
Data from the Victorian outbreak in May, and the Sydney outbreak before Christmas showed that outbreaks have peaked in 14 days, taken as a 14-day average.
The last NSW outbreak ended after 33 days and the return to baseline levels – usually seen as the necessary for lightened restrictions is 46 days.
We’re at the end of the first week of the new Sydney outbreak, but these figures may have been for the less catchy strain, so we have a long way to go.
Next, the statistics overwhelmingly show that breaches in our quarantine system are to blame for outbreaks, and no particular state deserves all the blame. The NSW system fares better than most – being run by the ADF and police. Outsourced arrangements fare poorly, and the general message is that, from an economic perspective, the cost of a purpose built facility is cheaper than the cost of even a single major city lockdown.
There used to be a time when this was self-evident.
Quarantine, like the defence of the nation, customs and border control, is a Federal responsibility, not the States. It’s right there in the Constitution.
Those of you who, like me, have visited the Sydney Quarantine station know that this is how our forebears, better acquainted with disease than we it seems, dealt with quarantine. The The data shows that Hotels are not optimal quarantine venues.
Next, is where we are compared to the rest of the world.
Israel have fully vaccinated 57% of their population.
The UK, 49% the US, 47%, and Singapore, 36%
At 28th June, only 4.7% of people have been fully vaccinated (although 23.9% of Australians have had one dose).
However, this is also because in Australia there have been only 910 deaths in total from COVID, while in the US for example, the toll now tops 604,000.
In terms of deaths per capita, worldwide, we are spectacularly lucky.
In Peru 5,893 per million head of population have died (x164)
In the U.K. it’s 1,913, and 1,832 in the U.S.
In Australia the figure is only 36 deaths per million. That’s between 51 and 164 times lower mortality than the others, and that’s largely because our governments took the relevant scientific advice early and implemented measures.
We would need to deliver 155,000 jabs a month, using all available vaccine types, to get to herd immunity by the end of the year. We’re currently tracking at about 110,000 doses per month.
Unfortunately, so called ‘Vaccine hesitancy’ is a major risk, with 26% percent of survey respondents stating they’re unlikely to get the jab.
Without herd immunity, usually cited as 85%, 90% or higher in a community, outbreaks can still occur.
A breakdown of the numbers shows that only 5% of those who are hesitant are your stereotypical tinfoil hat wearing anti-vaxxer – and I use that term advisedly: those misguided people are endangering us all.
But most people who are hesitant have legitimate concerns about the potential side effects for their age group, have particular medical circumstances, or just want more information, which is why I’m making this video.
Vaccination is safe and effective, the side effects are rare, and the benefits outweigh the very small risks.
And here’s some facts about the economic impacts of COVID.
COVID delivered the biggest temporary hit to Australia’s growth since records started being kept in 1930. It beats every other economic downturn, hands down
But this chart shows that not only is the relative death toll lower for Australia, but the relative economic impact has been far lower than for other developed nations. The UK, EU and Canada have all been hit harder economically speaking.
But relative to other economic downturns, such as the GFC of 2007, or the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, the overall impact of COVID has been shallower.
It doesn’t seem like that, because its impact has been so much more visible and has hit vulnerable sectors of the economy. The recovery is likely to be stronger, much stronger than coming back from other downturns, because the dip was artificially induced, rather than any due to any deficiency in underlying demand.
Disposable income to Australian households is higher now than before the crisis, although I disagree with this chart because it does not show the differential effect of COVID on different people – those working in the service and retail economy might not feel better off at all.
But to employ a metaphor, the economy is running on sugar at the moment. A massive stimulus spike, funded by… us, the taxpayer.
The net result is deficits, as far as the eye can see.
Although it’s worth observing, when we compare the predictions of recovery from this crisis with the predictions made at the heights of others, the track record of economic forecasters and governments only have two things in common – they are spectacularly optimistic, and usually wrong.
I am concerned that what has been termed “Modern Monetary Theory” abandons the idea of debt as bad.
Running surplus budgets and lowering public debt used to be an article of faith for right of centre, fiscally prudent governments.
My own view is that of Edmund Burke, the father of modern Conservatism:
“Society is a contract, between those who have gone before, those alive today, and those who are yet to be born”
We should not be in doubt. The money that the government has borrowed to meet the needs of the current emergency does not come from nowhere.
It’s borrowed from future generations.